On the eve of the midterms: record early turnout, an open fight for the Senate and unease within NATO
More than 52 million Americans have already voted; Trump headed to Iowa and Kansas on Sunday, while European diplomats fear the fallout of a Republican defeat.
On Tuesday Americans elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators. According to the University of Florida's Election Lab, more than 52 million people have already voted early or by mail, a record for a midterm election, Al Jazeera reports. In 2022 the figure was almost 46 million. La Libre writes, citing AFP, that a majority of those early voters are registered Democrats. Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 Senate seats and a narrow majority in the House.
President Donald Trump held rallies on Sunday in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas, two states he won comfortably in 2024 but where the Senate races now look neck and neck, Al Jazeera reports. In Kansas, Republican senator Roger Marshall faces pastor Adam Hamilton. Trump said on Saturday that the country had never done better and that he was optimistic. Republican congressman Don Bacon warned on CNN that tariffs are not popular in the Midwest. According to an NBC News poll, 60 percent of Americans disapprove of the president's performance.
To win a Senate majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats, because Vice President JD Vance casts the deciding vote in a tie, La Libre explains. The paper names Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia and Texas as key states. In Alaska, where Senator Dan Sullivan faces Mary Peltola, a federal judge on Sunday rejected a Justice Department request to block in advance the certification of a possible Democratic win, RTBF reports. The administration had pointed to possible confusion with a candidate with an almost identical name.
The vote is also being watched closely in Europe. Five NATO diplomats told the news site Politico, La Libre writes, that they fear Trump could take a tougher line with the allies after a defeat, for example through a larger withdrawal of US troops. US law currently requires at least 76,000 troops in Europe, and a review of the force posture is expected by December. The White House says Trump has done more for NATO than anyone and points to the allies' pledge to spend 5 percent of GDP on defence by 2035.