Europe heats this year from a tight gas stock, and according to the IEA it could fall below 10 percent by the end of March
Storage is less full than in any year since 2013, and disrupted LNG supplies via Hormuz could keep the market under pressure next year too.
European gas reservoirs are less well filled at the start of the heating season than in any other year since 2013, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in its annual gas security report, Trend reports. At the end of October EU storage was about 75 percent full, below the European target of 80 percent, writes TRT World. About 4 percent less gas was injected this season than on average over the previous five years. In Germany the average stood at 61 percent, while the law requires 70 percent by 1 November.
The cause lies largely in the Middle East. LNG transport through the Strait of Hormuz was largely at a standstill from March to October, which extra exports from North America could only partly offset, Business AM reports. Gas prices rose during that period to levels not seen since the energy crisis of 2022 and 2023. The IEA expects demand for gas to remain high into the summer of 2027.
With a colder than normal winter and continued disruptions, European storage could fall below 10 percent of capacity by the end of March 2027, the IEA warns, according to Trend. Below 30 percent, gas withdrawals usually slow down. Low stocks at the end of winter mean much more gas will need to be injected next summer, which could prolong the tightness. Europe would then compete harder with countries in Asia and South America for flexible LNG cargoes, which could push up spot prices.